Congress’ Achilles’ heel — BJP in north India

The unexpected defeat of the Congress party in Haryana on Tuesday once again underlines the principal Opposition party’s inability to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in direct contests, especially in north India. The latest results of Jammu and Kashmir also indicate that the Congress requires a strong ally, such as the National Conference, to take on the BJP.
Weeks before the Haryana elections, a large section of the Congress was already in a jubilant mood — ‘we are winning Haryana’. One witty Congress leader even quipped “This time, even the Congress can’t defeat the Congress!” In other words, he meant that factionalism won’t hurt the party’s prospects in Haryana.
A similar, premature euphoria had gripped the party last winter in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. A top-ranking Congress leader, who came to Hyderabad to campaign for the Telangana elections (after polling for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were over) had predicted, “We have already won MP and Chhattisgarh!”
In reality, the Congress lost all three big states in the north — MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
In 2022, the Congress won Himachal Pradesh while the BJP bagged Gujarat and Uttarakhand in a direct contest between the two. The BJP also won the key state of Uttar Pradesh in the same year against the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party while the Congress got relegated to a marginal position.
In 2020, the BJP lost to key regional players such as Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Janata Dal United-Congress alliance in Bihar. The JD(U) quit the alliance and returned to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance earlier this year.
In Haryana, this will be the third consecutive term of the BJP — setting a new record after Congress’ Bhupinder Singh Hooda won two terms between 2005 and 2014.
The Congress’ inability to take on the BJP in direct contests, particularly in the vast political trenches of northern India has impacted the party’s overall performance and kept it out of power at both the Centre and in a large number of states.
The larger goal of the Congress is to improve its strike rate in northern India. However, that has failed so far. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress got 27 of its 99 seats from north India, even as the BJP got 154 of its 240 seats from the north Indian states.
Despite the party being in power in Himachal Pradesh, Congress strategists point out how it has lost vital ground in north India as it conceded defeat to the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh last year. This electoral loss in assembly polls has created a larger problem for the country’s biggest opposition party — it faltered when it needed to drastically improve its strike rate against the BJP.
“The biggest problem for the opposition is that the Congress is not able to grow in states where it faces the BJP. In other areas, it plays second fiddle to strong regional parties,” a non-Congress leader said, seeking anonymity.
For the past two years, a number of Congress strategists have pointed to this factor during internal meetings.
“Our focus has remained on improving our strike rate in north India. If we can expand our presence in north India, we have a better chance to tackle the BJP nationally,” said another Congress leader.